Investing Thomas Kelly, CFA Investing Thomas Kelly, CFA

A Cautionary Tale of Concentration & Exuberance

The value of investment markets lies in the unknowable future. No one knows exactly what comes next - despite what some may claim. What we do know, grounded in academic research, is that valuations matter.

By Chief Investment Officer Tom Kelly, CFA.

The value of investment markets lies in the unknowable future. No one knows exactly what comes next - despite what some may claim.

What we do know, grounded in academic research, is that valuations matter. Today, the S&P 500 Index (a proxy for U.S. stocks) is pressing against historical highs in Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E). U.S. stock markets are also currently significantly richer than their international counterparts, based on historical data.

Chart of Valuation Ranges Across Regions

Source: Morningstar. Stock markets are represented by the following indices: US - S&P 500 Index; International Developed - MSCI World ex USA Net Return USD; Emerging Markets - MSCI Emerging Markets Net Return USD. 12-Month Forward P/E ratio is a stock valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its projected earnings per share (EPS) over the next 12 months. See Important Disclosure Information. *Interquartile range reflects the "middle 50%" of the range of historical valuations from the 25th to 75th percentile.

We also know that concentration reduces diversification across securities, leaving portfolios more exposed to the performance of a handful of stocks - for better or worse. Currently, concentration in the S&P 500 is close to as high as it has been.

We’ve seen valuations and concentration like this before. In the late 1990s, technology companies dominated the market. When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the S&P 500 index earned -9% (-1% annualized) over the following ten years beginning in January 2000, a stretch many still call “the lost decade.” During that same period, International Developed stocks eked out a 17% gain (2% annualized), while Emerging Markets stocks surged 154% (10% annualized). Diversification proved its worth.1

Since then, the S&P 500 has more than recovered, compounding over 14% annually and outpacing other international stocks by a wide margin.1 Understandably, this success leaves some investors wondering, "Why not invest solely in a S&P 500 Index fund?" But imagine opening your portfolio statement after ten years and seeing a negative number. Not a pleasant memory for those who lived through it.

Given ever-present uncertainty, the best we can do for you is to continue to hone the art of matching your goals and risk profile with a portfolio design that you won’t abandon in a down market. That philosophy is why we resist the temptation to chase what has worked most recently. What matters most is building a portfolio you can stick with, through good times and bad.

So far this year as of September 30th, the S&P 500 is up 15%. International Developed and Emerging Markets stock indices have returned 25% and 28%, respectively. We’ll gladly take these results of this global exposure. While our portfolios are not immune to market movements, diversification remains a core principle of MarketPlus® Investing.1

We are not predicting a crash in U.S. stocks. They may very well continue climbing, fueled by AI developments. But risks include both those we can see and those we cannot yet imagine. Continually reviewing valuations and investment market expectations when shaping portfolio design is one of the many ways we strive to help you cut through the noise of the markets and focus instead on time-tested strategies designed to help you achieve your long-term goals.

Source: Morningstar. Market concentration is measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), which in this case is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm in the S&P 500 index and then summing the resulting numbers. See Important Disclosure Information.


Important Disclosure Information:

1 US Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 index, which includes 500 leading U.S. listed companies, covering approximately 80% of available market capitalization. International Developed stocks are represented by the MSCI World ex USA Net Return USD Index, which covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each of 22 of 23 developed markets countries - excluding the USA. Emerging Markets stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Net Return USD, which covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each of 24 emerging markets countries. Data from Morningstar.

There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.

Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Index performance is measured in US dollars. The index performance figures assume the reinvestment of all income, including dividends and capital gains.

MarketPlus® Investing models consist of institutional quality registered investment companies. Investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost.

Advisory services are provided by SJS Investment Services, a registered investment advisor (RIA) with the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. SJS Investment Services does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professionals for specific advice.

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Investing Kirk Ludwig, CFIP, AIF® Investing Kirk Ludwig, CFIP, AIF®

Walking the Tightrope: The Fed, the Market, and Your Bonds

Interest rates don’t always make headlines, but when they do, they tend to shake everything else. That’s because rates sit at the heart of the economy: they influence borrowing costs, savings yields, and business investment.

By Senior Advisor, Director of Institutional Investment Management Kirk Ludwig, AIF®.

Interest rates don’t always make headlines, but when they do, they tend to shake everything else. That’s because rates sit at the heart of the economy: they influence borrowing costs, savings yields, and business investment. When rates rise, borrowing slows down and saving money becomes more attractive. When rates fall, money moves more freely, boosting spending and growth. The Federal Reserve adjusts short-term interest rates to keep this balance in check - more like walking a tightrope than pulling a lever. One wrong step, and they risk leaning too far in either direction.

Lately, that balancing act has gotten tougher. One day, markets are reacting to sticky inflation. The next, it’s fears of slowing growth (i.e., recession). Economic data keeps shifting, headlines flip week to week, and forecasts feel outdated the moment they’re made. With so much in flux, the Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting, opting to wait for more clarity. Tariffs could end up raising prices and slowing growth at the same time - a combination economists refer to as stagflation. It’s not a word we throw around lightly, but it explains why the Fed isn’t rushing into a decision.[1] Sometimes, staying put is the most thoughtful move.

It’s a challenging environment for policymakers, but it’s just as noisy for investors. And in times like these, clarity isn’t the most realistic goal. Preparation is.

That’s why, at SJS, we don’t try to guess the next move. We focus on building portfolios that can withstand evolving markets. Our fixed income strategy (bonds) is designed for a wide range of outcomes:

  • Short-duration bonds to help in an environment where prices stay elevated and yields potentially rise.

  • Inflation-protected bonds to assist in times of unexpected or prolonged inflation.

  • Longer maturity holdings that benefit if growth slows and yields fall.

  • A diversified mix of credit bonds, including investment-grade corporate bonds, as well as selectively-chosen high yield bonds and private credit to capture higher yields.

We don’t build portfolios to match the news. We build them to withstand it.

We’ve seen many economic cycles. Each one brings its own uncertainty, but this one feels especially dynamic. With so many moving parts, the outcome may look very different from what anyone expects. That’s why we don’t build portfolios around predictions; rather we build them to adapt. Time and again – we believe thoughtful diversification, discipline, and a clear process prove more effective than chasing headlines.

So yes, the Fed may be walking a tightrope. And yes, markets may stay moody.

But your bond portfolio? That should stay steady.


Important Disclosure Information & Sources:

[1] “Federal Open Market Committee”. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, federalreserve.gov.  

There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.

MarketPlus® Investing models consist of institutional quality registered investment companies. Investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost.

Statements contained in this report that are not statements of historical fact are intended to be and are forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include expressed expectations of future events and the assumptions on which the expressed expectations are based. All forward looking statements are inherently uncertain as they are based on various expectations and assumptions concerning future events and they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected.

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History Is Merely A Lot Of Surprises

I would suggest that hoping things get back to “normal” would be inconsistent with history, and that moving optimistically forward in spite of fear, uncertainty, and doubt has been rewarded in the past.


History is merely a lot of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.
— Kurt Vonnegut

If nothing else, the last three years have painfully reinforced what Kurt Vonnegut, a counter-cultural idol of the 1960’s and 70’s, wrote.[1]

Just as the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be evolving into an endemic disease, the surprise invasion by Russia into Ukraine continues to upend the lives of people in the war-torn country with negative implications for millions of people around the world. Add in the shock of higher inflation that is driving global interest rates higher and the value of financial assets lower, and Vonnegut’s words ring true.[2]

I would suggest that hoping things get back to “normal” would be inconsistent with history, and that moving optimistically forward in spite of fear, uncertainty, and doubt has been rewarded in the past.[3]

While this isn’t a Pollyannish prediction, as we all know that uncertainty and volatility in markets can increase, we take comfort in our fundamental beliefs that haven’t wavered since I started SJS:

  • We behave as if markets are efficient and are priced to reflect all known information, including the surprises we have experienced.

  • Trying to predict the short-term direction of markets is futile.

  • In the past, disciplined risk-taking has been rewarded over long periods of time, and we believe will be rewarded in the future.[3]

  • Unique portfolio design implemented in a disciplined manner is the value we bring to each and every client relationship.

  • The Team we have assembled - employees and partners alike - are giving their best every day, enabling us to act in your best interests.

My hope is that this is no surprise to you!


Important Disclosure Information & Sources:

[1] Slapstick or Lonesome No More! Kurt Vonnegut, 1999, Dial Press Trade Paperback.

[2] “Market perspectives June 2022“. Vanguard, 31-May-2022, vanguard.com.

[3] “Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2021“. Aswath Damodaran, January 2022, pages.stern.nyu.edu.

There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.

MarketPlus Investing® models consist of institutional quality registered investment companies. Investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost.

Advisory services are provided by SJS Investment Services, a registered investment advisor (RIA) with the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. SJS Investment Services does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professionals for specific advice.

Statements contained in this report that are not statements of historical fact are intended to be and are forward looking statements. All forward looking statements are inherently uncertain as they are based on various expectations and assumptions concerning future events and they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected.

Hyperlinks to third-party information are provided as a convenience and we disclaim any responsibility for information, services or products found on websites or other information linked hereto.


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MarketPlus Investing

Video on our MarketPlus Investing philosophy.



Important Disclosure Information:

There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market.

MarketPlus Investing® portfolios consist of institutional quality registered investment companies. Investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost.

Statements contained in this video that are not statements of historical fact are intended to be and are forward looking statements. All forward looking statements are inherently uncertain as they are based on various expectations and assumptions concerning future events and they are subject to numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected.

Advisory services are provided by SJS Investment Services, a registered investment advisor (RIA) with the SEC. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. SJS Investment Services does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professionals for specific advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only.


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